Housing and Mortgage Info

I've been gathering real estate and mortgage information for a while now, trying to gauge the market here in California. There seems to be lots of opinions out there on where the market is headed. Of course, you always have the eternal optimists (the California Association of Realtors, for instance), and those for whom the glass is always half empty (the PrudentBear.com people). Anyway, here's a list of web sites and news articles I've collected recently, grouped by their outlook.

Eternal Optimists California Association of Realtors (quote: "C.A.R.'s California Housing Market Forecast for 2005: Double-digit increases in median price to continue as sales moderate to second best year on record.") National Association of Realtors (quote: "'David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said month-to-month existing-home sales should not experience significant shifts. "In the first quarter of 2005, the trend will be a gradual ease in the sales pace with the housing market coasting at historically high levels as mortgage interest rates rise,' he said. 'At this point – with strong market fundamentals – we project next year will be the second-best overall year for the housing market.'") The Good Times Are Over

Center for Economic and Policy Research
(quote: "The crash of the housing market will not be pretty. It is virtually certain to lead to a 
second dip to the recession. Even worse, millions of families will see the bulk of their savings 
disappear as homes in some of the bubble areas lose 30 percent, or more, of their value. 
Foreclosures, which are already at near record highs, will almost certainly soar to new peaks.")

PrudentBear.com
(quote: "Categorically, asset bubbles require ever-increasing quantities of credit expansion.
As for housing, rising borrowings are necessary to finance booming transaction volume and
maintain inflated values. This is most conspicuous currently with the hyper-bubble markets
in California and along the East Coast. And liquidity emanating from the mortgage finance
bubble these days fuels inflated and vulnerable financial asset prices...I today advise that
the U.S. mortgage finance bubble creates a clear and present danger to the stability of our
financial system and economy, as well as the soundness of our currency.")

Articles of Interest
Southland Home Sales Slow but Prices Still Climb (L.A. Times: 10-15-04)
The worst kind of debt: Charging the groceries (MSN: 10-14-04)
Home Prices in L.A. Flatten (L.A. Times: 10-13-04)
State Dominates Subprime Mortgage Lending in U.S. (L.A. Times: 10-12-04)
Is the Housing Boom Over? (Fortune via mindfully.org: 09-20-04)
Look Out Below, Lenders (Business Week: 06-07-04)

Sites Of Interest
Sacbee.com: Real Estate News
RealEstateJournal.com
Realestateconsulting.com
Foreclosures.com

America's Secret War

A book by George Friedman has just been released. If you're interested in a sober, unbiased analysis of the current geopolitical situation, this is the guy to read. I've been reading Stratfor for years, and his team has always had it's hand on the pulse of current goings on in the world.

Eruption Update

Kaboom! Looks like a nice explosion today.

Seismic Links

Lots of seismic activity going on, so if you're interested, here's a few links:

Mount St. Helens Volcano Cam:
http://www.fs.fed.us/gpnf/volcanocams/msh/
Webcam Loop:
http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/msh/
Mount St. Helens Volcanic Advisories:
http://www.pnsn.org/NEWS/PRESS_RELEASES/MSH_09_2004.html


Recent Earthquakes in California and Nevada: (Check out the Parkfied event and the swarm in Adobe Hills)
http://quake.usgs.gov/recenteqs/
U.S.G.S. Earthquake Hazards Program Website
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/
San Andreas Deep-Core Drilling Project (Same guys that did the one in Mammoth Lakes):
http://www.icdp-online.de/sites/sanandreas/news/news1.html

Mauna Loa Current Activity
http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/maunaloa/current/main.html
Kilauea Volcano Cam
http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/cam/index.htm